Thanksgiving feast costs less this year, but inflation lingers

• Thanksgiving meal cost down 5% from last year.
• Turkey prices drop 6% compared to 2023.
• Dinner costs remain 19% higher than in 2019.
• Price hikes persist in items like stuffing and rolls.
• Economists warn tariffs could hike future food prices.

Thanksgiving 2024 — As families and friends across the nation gather to celebrate Thanksgiving, there’s a bit of good news on the dinner table: the cost of the classic holiday feast has dipped compared to last year. According to the American Farm Bureau Federation’s (AFBF) 39th annual Thanksgiving dinner survey, the average cost for a traditional meal for ten people is $58.08, or about $5.80 per person. This marks a 5% decrease from 2023, offering some relief to consumers amid ongoing economic challenges.

Turkey Takes a Tumble.

The star of the Thanksgiving spread, the turkey, has significantly reduced overall meal costs. The average price for a 16-pound bird is now $25.67, translating to $1.60 per pound—a 6% drop from last year’s prices. This decline comes despite the smallest American turkey flock since 1985 due to avian influenza outbreaks.

“The turkey is traditionally the main attraction on the Thanksgiving table and is typically the most expensive part of the meal,” said AFBF Economist Bernt Nelson. “The American turkey flock is the smallest it’s been since 1985 because of avian influenza, but overall demand has also fallen, resulting in lower prices at the grocery store for families planning a holiday meal.”

Mixed Bag for Other Ingredients.

While most ingredients in the survey saw prices decline—including sweet potatoes, which dropped over 26%—not all items followed this trend. Dinner rolls and cubed stuffing mix experienced an 8% increase, attributed to higher labor costs and other factors driving up processed food prices. Cranberries also saw a nearly 12% price hike, rebounding from a significant decrease the previous year.

Fresh vegetables like peas and veggie trays became more affordable, reflecting crop price volatility this year. The cost of whole milk decreased by more than 14%, partly due to favorable weather conditions. However, it’s important to note that milk prices can vary significantly across different regions of the U.S.

Still Above Pre-Pandemic Levels.

Despite the overall decrease from last year, Thanksgiving dinner is still 19% more expensive than in 2019. This highlights the lasting impact of inflation on food prices and farmers’ costs since the pandemic began. AFBF President Zippy Duvall emphasized the need for continued support for the agricultural sector.

“We should all be thankful that we live in a country with such an abundant food supply,” Duvall said. “We are seeing modest improvements in the cost of a Thanksgiving dinner for a second year, but America’s families, including farm families, are still being hurt by high inflation.”

Duvall also called for a strong farm bill to help maintain food affordability in the U.S. “America has one of the most affordable food supplies in the world. In order to maintain that, we need a strong farm bill which enables Americans to pursue their dreams without worrying about feeding their families,” he said. “A new farm bill with a modernized safety net to support those who raise crops and livestock ensures farmers can survive tough economic times and continue to supply food for America’s families, not just for the holidays, but year-round.”

Regional Variations and Expanded Menus.

The survey revealed regional differences in the cost of the Thanksgiving meal. The South enjoyed the most affordable classic meal at $56.81, followed closely by the Northeast at $57.36, the Midwest at $58.90, and the West at a higher $67.05. When adding items like boneless ham, Russet potatoes, and green beans, the overall cost rose to $77.34 nationally.

Looking Ahead: Potential Impact of Tariffs.

Economists are cautioning that future Thanksgiving dinners could become more expensive if proposed tariffs are implemented. John Lowrey, an assistant professor of supply chain and information management at Northeastern University and a food pricing expert, noted that tariffs can lower capital productivity. This could particularly affect shelf-stable products essential for holiday meals, such as spices and seasonings, leading to higher consumer prices.

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Image:

Thanksgiving arrangement.  By Sarah Stierch, licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International license.  (CC BY 4.0)

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