Colorado River at a crossroads: Feds release post-2026 proposals

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The Department of the Interior proposed five alternatives for managing the Colorado River post-2026.
Stakeholders are reacting to the lack of certain shared burden elements.
Alternatives range from strict federal authority to a collaborative “Basin Hybrid” approach.
The crisis is fueled by a 24-year drought and exacerbated by climate change.
Public and stakeholder input is central to shaping final guidelines by 2026.

November 22, 2024 — On Wednesday, November 20, 2024, the Department of the Interior, through the Bureau of Reclamation, unveiled five proposed strategies for managing the Colorado River’s vital reservoirs—Lake Powell and Lake Mead—beyond 2026. These strategies are the culmination of years of collaboration with Basin states, Tribes, and stakeholders amid a megadrought that has left the river system teetering on the edge of collapse.

Acting Deputy Secretary Laura Daniel-Davis emphasized the significance of this moment, stating, “The alternatives we have put forth establish a robust and fair framework for a Basin-wide agreement. This process lays the foundation for greater stability for 40 million water users.”

The Five Alternatives: A Closer Look.

No Action Alternative:
- Reverts to pre-2007 operating guidelines with limited adjustments.
- Maximum shortages in the Lower Basin capped at 600,000 acre-feet.
- Does not include new delivery or storage mechanisms.
Alternative 1: Federal Authorities:
- Implements strict federal control using existing statutory powers.
- Lake Powell releases range from 9.5 to 5.0 million acre-feet (maf).
- Lower Basin shortages could reach up to 3.5 maf.
Alternative 2: Federal Authorities Hybrid:
- Blends federal control with collaborative elements.
- Introduces new storage and delivery mechanisms for flexibility.
- Proposes Basin-wide shared conservation contributions.
Alternative 3: Cooperative Conservation:
- Focuses on conservation and sustainability.
- Introduces voluntary water contributions from both Upper and Lower Basins.
- Includes larger shortages of up to 4.0 maf in the Lower Basin.
Alternative 4: Basin Hybrid:
- Combines elements from Tribal, state, and federal proposals.
- Encourages conservation and equitable management.
- Shortages analyzed through priority and pro-rata approaches.

Each alternative reflects varying levels of collaboration and resource allocation, with a shared goal of maintaining reservoir sustainability under extreme hydrological conditions. (Download the alternatives here).

Stakeholder Responses.

Central Arizona Project (CAP), which delivers water to over 80% of Arizona’s population, expressed surprise at the exclusion of key components such as burden-sharing between Upper and Lower Basins. CAP General Manager Brenda Burman stated, “Just two days ago, CAP and the Arizona Department of Water Resources met publicly with Arizona’s key stakeholders, including water users and tribes. We discussed the benefits of an approach, which included sharing the burden of future reductions with the Upper Basin and the importance of the Colorado River Compact. We are surprised that we don’t see those elements included in the alternatives released today. We believe any future consensus alternative will need to include both and believe that all the states that benefit from the river still need to share in the solution to protect its future.”

On the other hand, Colorado representatives are standing firm behind the Upper Basin’s supply-driven approach. In a statement to Colorado Politics, Becky Mitchell, Colorado’s commissioner on the Upper Colorado River Commission, said that the state “cannot speak directly to the contents of Reclamation’s matrix of potential alternatives at this time” but the Upper Basin’s plan submitted in March “performs best according to Reclamation’s modeling.”

Historical Context: The Compact Call.

Negotiations have reignited debate over the 1922 Colorado River Compact. As highlighted by Shannon Mullane in The Colorado Sun, the compact mandates a minimum flow of 75 million acre-feet over a decade at Lee Ferry. Lower Basin states have hinted at invoking a “compact call” to force Upper Basin compliance, further straining negotiations.

Federal and Tribal Collaboration.

For the first time, Tribal Nations have been actively included in decision-making processes. Commissioner Camille Calimlim Touton stated, “We have worked tirelessly to bring stakeholders together for an inclusive process. These alternatives represent the collective work of Basin partners.”

This approach has facilitated 30 nation-to-nation consultations and 40 Tribal information exchanges, marking a significant shift towards inclusive water management.

Challenges Ahead.

Despite near-term successes, such as a 50-foot rebound in Lake Powell’s water levels, long-term challenges persist. Climate change continues to drive unprecedented drought conditions, demanding urgent action. The Department of the Interior is leveraging resources from the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law and Inflation Reduction Act to enhance water infrastructure and promote conservation.

John Podesta, Senior Advisor to the President for International Climate Policy, captured the stakes: “In the face of a climate change-fueled megadrought, communities and ecosystems in the Colorado River Basin need both near-term and long-term solutions to ensure the stability of this precious resource for generations to come.”

With a final decision required by August 2026, the path to a sustainable Colorado River system hinges on consensus among states, Tribes, and stakeholders. The alternatives outlined by the Bureau of Reclamation offer a framework, but the hard work of negotiation lies ahead. As public comments and environmental impact analyses unfold, the future of this vital resource remains uncertain but hopeful.

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Image:

“Desert landscape image showing a hiking trail with hikers along the Colorado River in Lees Ferry, Arizona.” November 2021 by Ray Redstone. Licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 4.0 International license.